Blair caught in the EU crossfire

Blair caught in the EU crossfire
by BENEDICT BROGAN,
Daily Mail
07:39am
31st May 2005

Tony Blair is under pressure from all sides to press ahead with a referendum on the EU constitution despite the resounding French 'Non' vote.

Mr Blair would have seen the French rejection as his way out of holding a referendum next year - and an almost certain defeat.

That would have allowed him a triumphal handover of power to Gordon Brown.

But the pressure is now mounting from an unlikely coalition of opponents that he must hold the referendum anyway, which could ruin his political legacy and be seen as a vote by the British people on his Premiership.

Brussels bureaucrats want the British vote to go ahead to give the treaty respectability, ensuring the whole idea is not scrapped before it gets off the ground. The French want the British vote to go ahead because they don't want to be seen as the only one of Europe's big players to be responsible for the treaty's failure.

And adding to the pressure, the Conservatives are pressing hard for the vote to be held because, as well as finally killing off the treaty, they can sense the humiliation a No vote would bring to Mr Blair and his Government.

The whole issue also introduces a dangerous new crack in the Brown-Blair relationship. The referendum, whatever the result, was always seen as the natural handover point.

'No single member state has a veto'

Without a vote, there would be no obvious timetable for the leadership change and Mr Brown could remain frustrated and out of power for longer than he was willing to accept. That means he could be ready to cause Mr Blair trouble as he fights for power.

Last night, Mr Blair was scrambling to find other EU allies who will publicly call for the ratification process to be formally scrapped.

But his efforts are up against a determined attempt by the Brussels machine to ignore the will of the voters and get the constitution on to the statute books 'by the back door' by pressing ahead with ratification - and adopting it piecemeal if that fails.

Even though France has convincingly rejected the constitution - and Holland is expected to follow suit tomorrow - it looks as if vast swathes of the treaty could be forced on the citizens of Europe.

Senior officials, led by Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson, even suggested France could be asked to vote again until it came up with the right answer - a Yes vote. He warned: "No single member state has a veto over a constitutional treaty of this sort."

And Javier Solana, the EU's external relations supremo, claimed the parts of the constitution that dealt with foreign policy could be introduced even without approval by the 25 member states.

They were backed by an official statement from the Commission which made it clear that those who run the European machine want the ratification process to continue in the hope that, if enough countries ratify the document, it will be pushed through against French and Dutch objections. The drumbeats from Brussels prompted Tory spokesman John Redwood to warn: "If there is any danger of any part of this constitution being smuggled in by the back door they should have to take it through the front door and the British people should have the same chance as the French people of having a decisive view expressed on it."

Yesterday, Mr Blair refused to say whether Britain would press ahead with the referendum pencilled in for next spring. Instead, he called for 'time for reflection'.

Blair off the hook

But there was no disguising the sense of relief in Downing Street at the way the French - and the Dutch tomorrow - have got Mr Blair off the hook.

He and senior ministers are understood to believe that the constitution is now dead and there is no point in troubling the voters with a referendum the Government is almost certain to loose.

Foreign Secretary Jack Straw will make a statement to the Commons when the House returns on Monday, setting out the British reaction. But he is likely to play for time on the referendum question in the hope that other EU countries, in particular the Scandinavians, will come forward and call for the ratification process to be halted.

Mr Blair faces implacable opposition from President Jacques Chirac, who will lead calls for the countries that have still not ratified the treaty - including Britain - to press ahead.

The humiliated French leader will want to see Mr Blair face a similar ordeal at the hands of the British voters.

Public enthusiasm for a referendum was made plain two years ago when the Daily Mail staged a landmark national poll.

It found that nine out of ten people wanted a say on the draft treaty and sent a clear warning to Downing Street that Mr Blair could not afford to ignore the British people.

This story first appeared in the Daily Mail