Brussels in denial over the gathering storm

Brussels in denial over the gathering storm
By David Rennie in Brussels and Toby Helm
The Daily Telegraph

European Commission officials insisted yesterday that Britain was obliged to hold a referendum on the draft EU constitution, even if the treaty were rejected tomorrow by France.

However, a British official rejected the demand and said it was "utterlyunhelpful".

By tomorrow night, the European Union may have been plunged into its deepest political crisis in decades, if France votes No. Three days later, on June1, Holland holds its own referendum on the constitution, and polls there also show the No vote is in the lead.

In Brussels, a two-pronged strategy was becoming clear.

First: deny any hint of a crisis, and declare business as usual. Then keep the constitution alive by insisting that all 25 nations have a legal obligation to carry on putting the treaty to ratification votes, either in national parliaments, or by referendum.

Nine countries have ratified the text so far. The Commission has long argued that an obscure annexe to the draft constitution can be interpreted to meanthat all nations must vote on it.

"Declaration 30" calls for an EU summit if four fifths of member states approve the text and others reject it. If some countries do not vote, the argument goes, how can EU leaders at that summit know who thinks what?

Commission officials unveiled a fresh legal argument, drawn from the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. This declares that once a state has signed a treaty - and Britain has signed the EU constitution treaty - it must "refrain from acts which would defeat the object and purpose of a treaty". A Commission official said Britain could not declare the constitution dead. "Your prime minister signed it, you can't just say it's not valid," he said.

The reaction from the Government was categorical.

"Taking an overly legalistic view of these things is utterly unhelpful," theBritish official said. "The EU is ultimately a political club, albeit one with very strong legal rules."

In Brussels, keeping the constitution alive is the top priority. Assuming the French vote No, a first reaction will come from the Commission headquarters in Brussels tomorrow night.

Plans call for Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, and current holder of the rotating EU presidency, to appear with the Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, as soon as the French result is official. MrJuncker, a master of the dark arts of EU politics, previewed his thoughts this week, in an interview with a Belgian newspaper. He backed those who think No-sayers should be made to vote a second time, until they get the answer right.

It has been done before: Denmark was forced to vote again, after rejecting the Maastricht treaty, and Ireland was asked to vote a second time on the Treaty of Nice. Both voted Yes, second time around.

Mr Juncker said: "We must wait for the process of ratification to be completed across the European Union. If, at the end of the process, we cannot solve our problems, then countries should ask themselves the question again." In Britain voters are split on whether there should be a referendum in this country if the French vote No, according to a YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph.