EU enlargement at a crossroads after French and Dutch No

EU OBSERVER
By Elitsa Vucheva

BRUSSELS - The uncertain political climate created by the French and Dutch rejections of the EU Constitution is leading to fears that the continued enlargement of the bloc could be affected.

Fear of further enlargement was cited among the reasons voters in both France and the Netherlands gave for turning the treaty down.

Lining up to join the bloc are Bulgaria and Romania, due to join in 2007, and Turkey due to open talks on 3 October, while the Western Balkans also hope to start accession talks within the next few years.

But while politicians in all these countries claim that the double No will not influence their path to the EU, analysts are less optimistic.

"The populations' fears [during the French and Dutch referendums] were related to enlargement, and the politicians cannot ignore that", Gergana Noutcheva, a Bulgarian research fellow at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), told the EUobserver.

It is not in member states' interest to push enlargement further, as "it ispolitically difficult right now", she added.

And Aurore Wanlin, from the London-based Centre for European Reform (CER), added that "we are more likely to see unilateral nationalism and astagnation of EU integration in the upcoming years", as the EU is lacking the political leaders able to get the Union out of the current crisis.

No danger for Bulgaria and Romania? One likely effect is that the EU is going to make sure it appears much tougher on future EU members.

Already, the enlargement commissioner, Olli Rehn, has said the Commission is going to send Sofia and Bucharest warning letters as they are lagging behind on reforms, and both countries face having their full membership delayed by one year if they do not live up to their reform promises.

Mr Rehn's spokesperson said that the fact the letters were sent should not be linked to the French and Dutch No, but they do take on extra political significance as the letters were announced the day after the Dutch referendum.

"It is indeed part of the procedure, but it is strange that it happens just after the referendums; maybe Mr Rehn feels that the political climate isgetting more complicated", said Ms Noutcheva.

But the biggest obstacle in Bulgaria and Romania's path to membership may lie with member states ratification of their accession treaties. With ominous sounds coming from the opposition Christian Democrats in Germany ­who may come into power in September ­ the mood could swing towards a no in the German parliament.

What direction for Turkey?
Turkey also has a big question mark hanging over it. While membership talks will probably be opened on 3 October as promised, countries like Germany,which may have a conservative government by then, will seek to slow the process down as much as possible.

Theoretically the start of talks should not be delayed if Ankara implements all of the requested reforms.

"But then again, one can choose to be lax with Turkey [as regards thereforms], or on the contrary be always more rigorous and impose new demands", Francoise de la Serre, recently retired analyst of Paris-based Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales, pointed out.

Finally, even if Turkey does make it through the negotiation process, at the other end of it, it will have to face French voters, who have been promised the right to a referendum on Turkish EU membership.

French voters are generally opposed to Ankara entering the bloc, and this opposition was one of the main arguments of French No campaigners before the referendum in the country.

The Balkans: in the middle of nowhere The Western Balkans are also likely to suffer, with most countries in the region still taking their first steps on the EU accession path.

"Currently, the EU cannot manage enlargement to 30-35 countries, it can barely manage 25. It should first shape its own policy, then enlarge", said John Palmer, Political director of the Brussels-based European Policy Centre.

But cutting short on EU enlargement may be dangerous for these countries.

The prospect of EU membership has been an essential stimulus for the countries of the region to implement democratic reforms, as they sometimes need to be externally motivated in order to go forward, said Ms Noutcheva.

Ms Wanlin expressed worries that stopping the process may lead to slower democratic reforms in the region as well.

Part of the solution, according to the CER's analyst, lies in a proper debate within the EU on "why enlargement is necessary".